Short-term Time Series Forecasting with Regression Automata

نویسندگان

  • Qin Lin
  • Christian Hammerschmidt
  • Gaetano Pellegrino
  • Sicco Verwer
چکیده

We present regression automata (RA), which are novel type syntactic models for time series forecasting. Building on top of conventional state-merging algorithms for identifying automata, RA use numeric data in addition to symbolic values and make predictions based on this data in a regression fashion. We apply our model to the problem of hourly wind speed and wind power forecasting. Our results show that RA outperform other state-of-the-art approaches for predicting both wind speed and power generation. In both cases, short-term predictions are used for resource allocation and infrastructure load balancing. For those critical tasks, the ability to inspect and interpret the generative model RA provide is an additional benefit.

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تاریخ انتشار 2016